Traders Edge Blog

Butt Ugly!… and then some…

Last week we referred to the post-election price activity as half-ugly, but warned it’d get butt-ugly if we saw further slippage. Well, the Nasdaq COMPX has slipped into correction territory and the INDU and SPX are headed there quickly, each down over 8 percent and now both decidedly below their 200-dmas. By any measure, that’s butt-ugly!

View it however you will, the gamesmanship and shoddy leadership outta all sides in Washington have us fast approaching the looming fiscal cliff…In response, the market is heading off a cliff of a different sort.

No doubt the post-election wave of broad selling has gotten in front of itself and stands currently oversold by a good clip. Nonetheless, the uncertainty brought on by the fiscal cliff remains unabated. Translated, lots of peeps are genuinely worried the pols will once again screw things up…and with good reason… If memory serves, this foreseeable disaster is the result of these same pols playing games not-so-long ago…

Now I’ll admit that it’s a bit of a reach to get real optimistic here, but the broad indices did all manage to recover most of their early-session losses late in Thursday’s activity. Might this be a signal we’ve reached an oversold point and the smart money is swooping in as usual to buy when the blood is running thick and hot in the streets?

Maybe…but frankly this don’t seem so nasty…yet…

Fact is the INDU is sitting on some decent support where it stands now. But it has to hold here or it’s pretty fair to assume it’s headed for key support back at 12k.

Because of the significance of the respective channels (dating to the March 2009 lows), I believe they stand a decent chance of holding, if so tested. If they do fail, then you are looking at some serious blood in the streets. Frankly, crush-down moves to and slightly through those key levels would entice me and a fair share of blokes into an aggressive long-side trade on those very indices.

Moreover, we’re those levels to fail, it would portend very badly regarding the collective confidence in the US economy presently…and more so for the foreword outlook.

But those are big “ifs” and we’re not there yet. For now we’re ugly, but not necessarily nasty. Looking ahead, just as mentioned a week ago, it’s fair to expect we’re due for a “plus” day or two to staunch the bleeding.

That said, it must be noted that the VIX ain’t exactly screaming “watch out—this is waaaaaay overdone.” In fact, the current level just shy of 18 is the same as a week ago and not that far north of the lows (below 14) that prevailed during the listless activity of months recent. The consolidation and coiling I’ve written about with frequency in the last several months remains in play.

It’s also worth remembering that were the SPX to trade down to channel support, it would have nixed 18 percent off its recent high. That’s a big yeeeiikkess.

Whether we see those key tests materialize, it’s still work stepping back and asking the same key question laid out a week ago…namely, when viewed in relative fashion, are we really headed back to the dark days of just the past several years? No doubt the obvious wild-card is Israel and the rest of the Middle East. If they really go off the deep end, then we got much larger problems. If they somehow manage to avoid war and keep the Iranians without nukes, then they will have dodged a bullet and our markets may well be off to the races…

We shall see…

~LH

Half Ugly—But Not Butt Ugly…For Now

Well, you can dress it up anyway you want and attribute the post-election activity to myriad factors, but whatever your thoughts and outlook, price action on the broad US indices has further retrenched and found itself back to some seriously important support levels. Not a stretch to call it ugly.

Both the INDU and SPX have retraced just over 6 percent since their Sept. highs and more than 3 percent post-election. Both now sit on critical mid-channel support. Truth be told, Thursday’s close on the INDU puts that index below key support ever so slightly.

The SPX actually held its key support in Thursday’s action, but that’s looking tenuous at this point.

Given the recent swoon, it’s accurate to label recent activity as ugly…but for now I’d call it half ugly. If we slip from here, it’ll get butt-ugly quickly.

Looking ahead, it’s fair to expect we’re due for a “plus” day or two to staunch the bleeding. That said, it must be noted that the VIX ain’t exactly screaming “watch out—this is waaaaaay overdone.” In fact, the current level of 18 is not that far north of the lows (below 14) that prevailed during the listless activity of months recent. Read into that what you want, but it reconfirms to me that we haven’t moved off the mark by much…the consolidation and coiling I’ve written about with frequency in the last several months remains in play.

Key for now is whether the indices are able to gain some legs and start back up off the aforementioned critical support levels at the mid-points of their respective channels. Such price activity would conform the side-winding patterns that have served to coil both indices tightly…the result of which is that both indices are screaming for resolution in either direction.

Breakdown from here and both indices are looking at tests of the lower support levels of the channels created off their March 09 selloff lows. If we visit those levels (approx 12k and 1220, respectively) the INDU would have retraced approx 13 percent. Such a move would be even more pronounced for the SPX—a retracement of roughly 18 percent.

As for what this translates to from a trading standpoint, aggressive traders are looking to play this short to the channel bottoms…and there is certainly room to justify such a play.

Alternatively, the present levels offer a perfect turn point in the market, given the significance of the channels both indices have faithfully maintained since their formation in March 09. Personally I’d wanna see some confirming signals before establishing a new long or adding to existing positions.

If we do head south from here and go on to test the channel-bottom lows, which would be likely, there is a big-question you need to ask yourself…Relatively speaking and short of a nuclear conflict, are we really headed back to the dark days of just the past several years?

If you think the wheels are coming back off, then we are likely to see the channels broken and the 09 levels tested. Color me a little skeptical at this point. The market has had everything, including the kitchen sink, thrown at it and it still showing relative strength…so much so that both the INDU and SPX remain in relatively close proximity to their respective record highs…

Tis fair to say that a whole lot of peeps will view a channel-bottom test as a huge long-side opportunity…with lots of upside potential.

For now, we’re left still looking for the resolution breakout that is growing all the more likely….

We shall see…

~LH